This is a good opportunity to re-examine the results of the past Provincial General Election (May 2015) and stress, once again, the need for the merger of the two conservative parties, the Wildrose (WR) and the Progressive Conservatives (PC). As everyone is well aware, the NDP formed the government by electing 54 MLAs with 40.6% of the popular vote. Wildrose formed the Official Opposition by electing 21 MLAs with 24.2% of the vote; the PCs elected 10 MLAs with 24.2% of the vote. While the Liberals and Alberta Party each elected one MLA, they are essentially irrelevant for all practical purposes.
The main takeaway from the election is that while the NDP did legitimately form the government the two conservative parties, combined, had considerably more support than their left-wing opponent. Together the WR and the PCs gained 52% of the vote while the NDP had only 40.6% of the vote. Quite obviously, a unified conservative movement would have finished ahead of the NDP and probably formed a majority government. This is the realistic objective for the conservative movement in Alberta.
Digging down into the election results, it is very clear that the NDP gained their majority largely because the conservative vote was split by the WR and PCs. In this regard the facts are plainly evident: 30 of the 54 seats won by the NDP were the direct result of vote-splitting. This is significant and must be emphasized again … more than one half of the NDP seats were won because the two conservative parties competed against each other in every riding.
A good example is right here in Banff-Cochrane where the NDP won the seat with 42.6% of the vote but the two conservative parties had 56.9% of the vote. Further, of the 15 seats the NDP gained in Calgary, 14 were won only because of vote splitting. There are many other ridings across the province that also illustrate this voting pattern: Medicine Hat, Peace River, Red Deer North, Red Deer South, Leduc-Beaumont, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Stony Plain, Wetaskiwin-Camrose (to name only a few).
While the NDP did win 24 seats with a clear majority of the votes, 19 of these were in the City of Edmonton. Obviously, the capital is a bastion, or citadel, of support for the NDP, but once outside Edmonton all other seats are very competitive for conservatives.
Albertans should be heartened by the fact that a merged conservative movement could and should be able to form the next government. Unfortunately, however, making this a reality by creating a new “unity party” is much easier said than done. It is not a foregone conclusion that a merger will actually occur because at present the insiders of the PC and WR have made it very clear that they would prefer to go it alone (regardless of the risks of doing so).
The other note of caution for conservatives is that they should not readily dismiss the NDP as a spent force, a party that can be easily defeated. The reality, in fact, is quite the opposite. The NDP has a strong base of support across the province and particularly in Edmonton (where they hold all 19 seats); further, as the government, the NDP has the means and the ability to use propaganda (as well as our own money) to inflate their record; the NDP itself has considerable financial resources largely provided by the large public sector unions; it is also significant to recognize that the NDP are clearly the favourite of “progressives” and the radical left across the country.
Additionally, it is obvious that the Trudeau Liberals are more inclined to support the NDP because Rachel Notley and her government rarely stand up for Alberta’s interests.
In summary, it is becoming apparent that the conservative movement can take back government from the NDP as early as the next general election (spring of 2019). Recent polls clearly show this to be the case. At the same time, however, it is important for conservatives not to become complacent and underestimate the NDP and their supporters both in this province and across the rest of the country. It will take the concerted efforts of all conservatives to defeat the NDP: don’t rely on someone else to do the hard work required to change government … all of us should become actively involved in the political process.
Owen Neal
Alberta Can’t Wait Banff-Cochrane Chapter
fb.com/ACWBCChapter
