The United Conservative Party knows they have a “fight on their hands” against the New Democrats in Banff-Kananaskis this provincial election, say some political experts.
The election could go either way in the swing riding, but environmental conservation, tourism, and health care – all key issues to the Bow Valley – are likely to divide votes in the selection of candidates.
“The history and diversity of this riding makes it quite interesting,” said Lori Williams, a political scientist at Calgary's Mount Royal University. “The strength of candidates this election and the fact that this area has gone NDP before means this will likely be an extremely competitive race.”
The list of candidates to put their names forward includes incumbent UCP MLA and parliamentary secretary for tourism Miranda Rosin; former Alberta Parks planner and ecologist Sarah Elmeligi (NDP); Solidarity Movement candidate Kyle Jubb; and Regan Boychuk, a leading researcher studying Alberta’s oilpatch, who is running under the Green Party.
The NDP and the UCP are the only parties, so far, to have a full slate of 87 candidates each across the province. Williams noted it is significant that Banff-Kananaskis has other candidates, considering the election so far is a two-party race in most constituencies.
She said it speaks to concerns around conservation, namely the blow back of the UCP lifting coal mining legislation along the Eastern Slopes and trying to close or delist 184 provincial parks and recreation areas in 2020.
“To the extent that this is all under provincial control, I think there are more questions for the UCP and Miranda Rosin than there is for anybody else when it comes to environment, and this is absolutely an area where that is an issue,” Williams said.
The NDP has been clear on their stance to coal mining, recently pledging to never open the eastern slopes to the industry. The party has also promised to scrap the UCP-implemented Kananaskis Conservation Pass in favour of an optional custom licence plate program that supports K-Country.
Vote splitting?
Having a Green Party candidate in Banff-Kananaskis – if Boychuk chooses to focus on similar policies – could be of an advantage to Rosin if there’s an overlap between the NDP and Green Party, which may split the vote in favour of the UCP.
“We know that the NDP won this riding in 2015, but with a Green and an NDP candidate – depending on what issues they stand on – it is possible the UCP will benefit by people splitting their vote,” Williams confirmed.
Acknowledging that environmental issues are paramount to Banff-Kananaskis, Keith Brownsey, another political scientist at Mount Royal University, also noted that affordability, housing, and health care are major concerns for many voters this year.
“There’s no question that [environmental concerns] will spur many to go and vote,” he said. “On the other hand, with economic issues, are people worried about tax increases on their homes, do they have affordability questions going into this election?”
Political experts suggest the vote could break either way in the sense that most voters will lean on a conservative government to be trusted with fiscal stability, or on a left-leaning government to focus on areas like the environment and health care.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s calls to privatize health care, the UCP’s government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and some of the party’s more recent controversies, including around the premier herself, will also impact votes in this election, Williams suggested.
“There are some UCP voters who have said to me they feel like they don’t have a choice in this election because of some of the things the premier has said or done, and they may not vote at all,” she said
The UCP’s response to the province’s health care crisis may also play into the hands of the NDP. While the 2023 budget promises $24.5 billion in health-care spending – an increase of four per cent from last year – the Banff-Kananaskis riding and many other areas of the province urgently await improved EMS response times and for physician shortages to be filled in their communities.
Based on the UCP’s recent track record and the Banff-Kananaskis riding having recently held an NDP government from 2015 to 2019, Brownsey said he believes the New Democrats have a good chance of a pick-up this year compared to the last election.
“It also came pretty close to being an NDP riding in 2019 and that wasn’t a particularly close provincial election overall,” he said. “This time out, just from that history, it indicates there could be some change.”
In 2015, MLA of the former Banff-Cochrane riding Cam Westhead won the seat from a slate of two other candidates representing the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties with 43 per cent of the vote.
Westhead later lost the seat to Rosin in 2019 by a margin of about nine per cent of the vote.
The 2019 election saw a total of six candidates join the ballot and was the first under the current Banff-Kananaskis banner. The riding was changed to remove Cochrane, which now votes in the Airdrie-Cochrane riding. It also added Springbank to Banff-Kananaskis, as well as Kananaskis Country, which was removed from the Livingstone-Macleod riding.
The electoral boundary of Banff-Kananaskis was restructured to bring together tourism-focused mountain communities situated in the Bow Valley, distinguishing them from Foothills communities focused more on agriculture.
The riding, which already included Stoney Nakoda First Nation, also added Tsuut'ina Nation. According to the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, the change was made to give a stronger Indigenous voice to the constituency.
In the Bow Valley area, the UCP has recently made investments in the two Nations in areas such as food security, continuing care, housing, internet and addictions recovery, among others.
Continuing to build and strengthen Indigenous relations between the Alberta government and Indigenous and Métis communities in the province is also outlined as a commitment in the premier’s mandate letter to Minister of Indigenous Relations Rick Wilson.
But what work has been done by the UCP government toward truth and reconciliation may be overshadowed for some by Smith’s own actions.
“All we need to do is look at the record and at some of the very insensitive things she’s said,” Williams said. “Right out of the gate, at a press conference, she said that unvaccinated people are the most discriminated against group that she’s ever seen in her lifetime, as if residential schools had never happened.”
All of the treaty chiefs in Alberta later came together to oppose Premier Smith’s Sovereignty Act, which they argued is an infringement of treaty rights.
“I don’t know if all that’s recoverable,” said Williams. “I think she has made enough statements to generate controversy and questions that she’s not likely to recover from that before the election, if at all.”
Williams said Rosin may be able to keep her Banff-Kananaskis seat if her efforts in the last four years have been enough to get recognized by constituents, and this will be an important area for the UCP to win.
Most recently, Rosin introduced a bill to give tourism communities like Canmore and Banff the ability to offset visitor-related costs. She has also been a vocal advocate for those opposed to the Springbank Off-stream Reservoir Project – including, initially, Tsuut’ina Nation.
While the tourism bill was ultimately shelved due to the timing of its introduction to the spring legislature in March, many are hopeful Rosin’s draft bill will return for consideration under a UCP or other future government to provide much-needed support to Canmore and Banff’s visitor economies.
According to 338Canada’s projection on May 10, the NDP has an 80 per cent chance of winning the Banff-Kananaskis riding by winning 50 per cent of the popular vote (+/- eight per cent), while the UCP has a 20 per cent chance of winning, with a projected 44 per cent of the popular vote, (+/- eight per cent).
As of May 10, the electoral projections and polling website predict the UCP will win the provincial election with 48 per cent of the popular vote and the NDP will be runner-up, with 44 per cent, both with a margin of error of six per cent.
In 2019, there were 28,531 registered voters in the Banff-Kananaskis riding. The provincial election that year saw a voter turnout of about 65 per cent.
The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada. Jessica Lee's position covers Îyârhe (Stoney) Nakoda First Nation and Kananaskis Country.
